Increasing Demand, Decreasing Production
Demand for wheat in the developing world is projected to increase 60% by 2050 (Rosegrant and Agcaoili 2010). At the same time, climate-change-induced temperature increases are estimated to reduce wheat production in developing countries (where around 66% of all wheat is produced) by 20-30% (Easterling et al. 2007; Lobell et al. 2008; Rosegrant and Agcaoili 2010).
Wheat production will also suffer the effects of stagnating or decreasing on-farm productivity, falling irrigation water supplies, declining soil fertility, and threats from emerging diseases and insect pests. In the absence of unprecedented, coordinated measures to raise wheat productivity, wheat consumers will pay more than twice today’s prices for their staple food by 2050 (Rosegrant and Agcaoili 2010).